Could Thai election cool political unrest

It is very certain that the ruling Democrat Party and the opposition Pheu Thai Party will fight each other tooth and nail in the upcoming general election slated for July 3 though both are not expected to win enough seats to form a single-party government, analysts said.

This general election will be held in the wake of deadly crisis in 2009 and 2010 when the anti-government "red-shirts", backed by ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra and Pheu Thai Party, organized mass protest to press for dissolution of lower house of parliament and holding a snap election.

The prolonged demonstration in the capital Bangkok from March to May in 2010 ended up with a bloody crackdown and left 91 people dead and almost 1,900 injured.

UNCERTAIN SITUATION FOR THE WINNER

All recent opinion polls conducted by different institutes showed that the Pheu Thai Party would gain majority votes in the July 3 election. However, it might be unrealistic that the party will win 270 seats as it wants in order to form a single-party government.

The most optimistic estimate gives Pheu Thai Party 175 of overall 375 seats of constituency-based system, and combined with speculated 60 of 125 party-list MPs, it will get a total of 235 seats, still short of the 251 seats needed to form a majority government on its own.

Pitch Pongsawat, a political science lecturer at Chulalongkorn University, noted that Pheu Thai must win more than 250 seats in a bid to form a government; otherwise, its victory would not ensure that it would become the ruling party.

The key factor in the game of forming government was other small parties, such as Chartthaipattana Party, Pitch added.

Some analysts said the Democrat Party was able to win about 200 seats, which will be enough to convince smaller parties to join a coalition government. When plus estimated 50-60 seats from Bhumjaithai Party, its main coalition partner, the Democrat-led government would secure some 250 seats.

In order to gain decisive majority in the House, Democrat needs the third party to join.

POLITICAL CHAOS AS ELECTION AFTERMATH? If Pheu Thai won the election and had a chance to form a government, the first priority is to push forward an amnesty law to pardon those affected by the September 2006 military coup, and pave the way for its de facto leader and the ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra to return home.

Thaksin was convicted of corruption in 2008 and has lived in exile to avoid a two-year sentence.

"Should Pheu Thai Party take power, the matter of Thaksin's coming back will certainly become main agenda and controversy between supporters and dissenters will overshadow other issues in Thai politics," Pitch said.

On the other hand, if the Democrats return to power, the pro- Thaksin red-shirt movement will again take to the street, he added.

An opinion poll conducted recently showed that 46.04 percent of 1,343 respondents in Bangkok and its vicinity worried political unrest may prevail in the aftermath of election.

A political lecturer from Thammasat University said that reconciliation would be unforeseen no matter which party holds the rein of government. While Pheu Thai cannot afford to fail in their attempt to set up a government as Thaskin's future is at stake, Democrat must do everything to preserve power to avoid the opposition revenge.

There is always light at the tunnel's end, however.

"Even with repeated election, democracy in Thailand will pick up because at one point people have to learn to live in harmony as they know the cost of conflict is high," Pitch affirmed.

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