California capable of meeting ambitious emissions target: report

California, the most populous U.S. state, will be able to achieve its energy target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050 as required by an executive order, according to a report released on Tuesday.

The report, titled "California's Energy Future -- The View to 2050," was released amid growing scepticism about the state's gas emission plan, particularly at a time when the state's population is expected to surge from 37 million to 55 million and the demand for energy is expected to double.

Despite those daunting numbers, California can achieve its target, though not without bold policy and behavioral changes as well as some scientific innovation, said the report.

The report was co-written by scientists from several institutions such as Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, University of California (UC), Davis, UC Berkeley, Stanford University, California Institute of Technology and the Electric Power Research Institute.

It draws a series of energy system "portraits" showing how California can meet its ambitious emissions targets using a combination of measures and energy sources that may include electrification, enhanced efficiency, nuclear energy, renewable energy sources, grid modernization, and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS).

The first 60 percent in emissions reductions can be realized with currently available technology, the report finds.

"California can achieve emissions roughly 60 percent below 1990 levels with technology we largely know about today if such technology is rapidly deployed at rates that are aggressive but feasible," the report says.

The remaining 20 percent reduction in emissions will have to come from advancements in several technologies still in development, which may include artificial photosynthesis, fusion energy, more efficient and sustainable biofuels, hydrogen fuel, more effective CCS and advanced batteries for both vehicles and grid storage, according to the report.

Berkeley Lab scientists are actively pursuing research in all of these areas, the report says.

If no measures are taken, emissions will likely double by 2050 relative to 1990 levels, but with efficiency alone --including more efficient buildings, industrial facilities and vehicles -- emissions could be held to 20 percent over 1990 levels, says the report.

To achieve its goal, California will need a very different electricity system that is better able to balance supply and demand while integrating more renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, which are intermittent, the report notes.

Reducing emissions will require efforts on both the supply and demand side of the energy equation. Faster development of California's diverse array of renewable energy resources -- wind, solar, biomass, geothermal, hydro and offshore marine energy -- will be needed to ensure an adequate supply of clean electricity, the report says.

It is calculated that wind power, for example, would have to grow at 7.5 percent annually and solar at 12 percent annually.

The report also considered the impact on land use from scaling up such operations; it estimated that 1.3 percent of the state's land area would have to be devoted exclusively to renewables.

On the demand side, the report recommends aggressive efficiency measures, such as retrofitting 1.8 percent of all buildings every year starting now.

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