Escalation in Sudan's Abyei reaches no-return point

The dispute between north and south Sudan over the affiliation of the country's oil-rich area of Abeyi seemed to have reached a point of no return after the recent clashes between the two sides.

The statements of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir on Tuesday widened the gap further between the Sudanese peace partners, the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) particularly that both sides did not seem to be willing to adopt a reconciliatory tone that could lead to calming down the tension between them.

Al-Bashir said that Abyei "belongs to north Sudan" and the Sudanese army would not pull out of it, adding that his country was not afraid of the US threats.

"The SPLM wants to make Dinka tribesmen the first class citizens and Mesiria tribesmen second class citizens in Abyei and we will never accept that," he added.

Al-Bashir further lashed out at the SPLM which he said has gone too far in its provocations against the Sudanese army, adding that the movement wanted to impose a reality in Abyei via mobilizing its troops in the area and recoiling from fulfilling its repeated promises to pull its troops out of Abyei.

"The SPLM thought the Sudanese army was unable to fight the war as it was occupied by the situation in Darfur, but we are ready for war," al-Bashir said.

"I have given instructions to the Sudanese army to respond to any provocations by the SPLM, anywhere," he added.

The SPLM, in the meantime, considered al-Bashir's statements as a continuation of the government's escalating policy which would not contribute to calming down the situation.

"We see that these statements constitute an unwise line and set the relationship between north and south Sudan under great doubts and many questions," Atim Garang, a leading SPLM member, told Xinhua.

"We dreamed of good and non-tensed relations between north and south Sudan and we were arranging for continuation of common interests with the north, namely with regard to our partnership in field of oil production and marketing, but now we greatly doubt the real intentions of north Sudan," he added.

The SPLM official further accused the NCP of seeking war, saying that "but we will not respond to that desire. We will not depend on the policy of violence because it does not serve the citizens, whether in the north or the south."

"We respect the will of the international community and commit to agreements and conventions. We will try to resolve the issue of Abyei through the protocol signed between us in 2005, the decision of the International Court in The Hague and the regional and international organizations," Garang said.

He further excluded that the negotiations between the two partners would lead to satisfactory solutions, saying that "we do not believe in the internal solution any more. We only believe in the international solution. Therefore, we will resort to the international community and any talk about negotiations between the two partners is a kind of public relations."

Violence in Sudan's Abyei region has been increasing recently as the NCP and the Sudan SPLM adhered to their positions and rejected solutions proposed by the African Union (AU).

Sudanese observers and analysts expressed their concerns over the situation, particularly after bullets have become the only language between the rivals in Abyei, saying that the escalation of violence there might be the last straw for the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) which has endured for six years.

The situation in Abyei escalated after the SPLA ambushed a convoy of Sudanese army soldiers and UN peacekeepers in the area on May 20, which resulted in the deaths of 22 northern Sudanese army soldiers.

In reaction, on May 21, the Sudanese army took control of the Abyei area and said the region belonged to north Sudan and rejected responding to calls by south Sudan to withdraw from Abyei.

The United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) on Tuesday said more than 15,000 civilians have fled Abyei to Agok area in south Sudan after the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) had controlled Abyei.

Abyei is close to the oil fields in southern Sudan's Unity State and at the same time lies in South Kordofan State, the only oil-producing state in northern Sudan.

Mohamed Hassan Saeed, a Sudanese political analyst, told Xinhua that "it seems that the military option has become more likely than any other option and no doubt that the current events in Abyei area will cast their shadows on the progress of the negotiations between the two partners."

Saeed further held the SPLM responsible for the recent tension in Abyei, saying "there were indications for this tension including that the SPLA was irregular and unable to commit to the political and military directives."

"Additionally, the repeated complaints of the SAF against the violations by the SPLA indicated that incidents could take place at anytime. It is true that there were clashes now and then, but the recent ambush by the SPLA against the SAF was the main event which ended years of fragile peace," he added.

He went on saying that "the SPLM, since December 2010, has been occupying the Abyei area which entirely lies north of 1956 borders which the Naivasha agreement considers a special area being under consultations. Besides, the SPLM deployed many armed groups to undermine the security and stability in the area."

Khalid Abdalla, the lecturer of political science at al-Rasid Center for Strategic Studies in Khartoum, told Xinhua that "Abyei has proved that the CPA between north and south Sudan was not comprehensive as it has left many issues outstanding."

"The Abyei protocol was like the barrel of ammunition which could explode at anytime, which set Sudan's future at stake. There are less than two months ahead of the official declaration of south Sudan's independence," he added.

A referendum on Abyei was supposed to be held on Jan. 9, coincident with the south Sudan referendum, but it was postponed in the wake of a difference between the NCP and the SPLM over who has the right to vote in the referendum.

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