Tropical, the majority of the northern hemisphere are likely to occur in the next 20 to 60 years of summer warming irreversible, if the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases continue to increase, according to a new climate research scientist at Stanford University. The results will be published later this month in the journal Climate Change.
In this study, the Stanford team concluded that, in Africa, Asia and South America can be seen in many tropical regions, in the next two decades, "the permanent unprecedented heat." Mid-latitudes of Europe, China and North America - including the United States - perhaps 60 years to accept the extreme summer temperatures, the researchers found.
"According to our projections, most of the world could warm up so fast, to the middle of this century, even the coolest of the summer than in the past 50 years, the hottest summer heat, said:" The study's lead author Noah Diffenbaugh as the environment and the environment of Earth System Science Fellow, Woods Institute Assistant Professor at Stanford. The study was conducted by a research assistant at Stanford University writing.
"When scientists talk about global warming leads to more heat waves, people often ask if this means that temperatures will become the most popular 'new normal,'" Diffenbaugh said. "This makes us think - at what time can we expect the temperature is always the coolest season record than the temperature of the hot season?"
To determine the global warming in the coming decades seasonal effects, Diffenbaugh and analysis of more than 50 climate models Scherer trials - including the 21st century, computer, global greenhouse gas concentrations will increase the simulation, and simulation of the 20th century and accurately " predicted that "global climate over the past 50 years. Analysis shows that the Earth may have experienced in many areas within 60 years, a permanent spike in seasonal temperature.
"We also analyzed data from weather stations around the world, the historical data to see whether there is an unprecedented heat has begun to forecast," Diffenbaugh said. "So, when we look back in time using temperature records, we found that this high temperature there is a place, and that climate models represent the historical model is very good."
Under the analysis of climate models and historical weather data, Tropical is the fastest warming. "We found that the most direct in the extreme increase in the hot season in tropical regions up to 70 per cent, of the season in the 21st century (2010-2039) more than biggest night of the 20th century," the authors write.
Tropics can see the most dramatic changes in the first, but North America, Europe and the Mediterranean may also be the whole of China into a large new thermal power into 2070, according to the study.
This seasonal temperature changes can dramatically on human health, agricultural production and productivity of ecosystems, causing serious consequences, Diffenbaugh said. As an example, he pointed out that the European record in the 2003 heat wave killed 40,000 people. He also pointed out that the study showed that summer temperatures in the Midwest is expected to increase to more than thirty percent less, the staple food such as corn and soybean harvest.
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